Watching news of all that happened today, the violence, the looting, the shootings I can’t help but wonder what is ODM’s plan?
How is the ongoing violence working for them? What are they trying to force to happen? New elections? Kibaki’s resignation? What exactly?
If Kibaki resigned wouldn’t Kalonzo take over since he is V.P?
Does anyone out there know what the plan is?
I understand the end goal is Raila as president but surely, he must know that if he unseats Kibaki in this this way, that is the way he too will be unseated and that will set a precedent for Kenya and how we unseat our presidents.
Political scientists already tell us that one coup guarantees a second. Just look at West African countries.
Political Scientists also tell us that there are powerful demonstration effects within regions. As in West Africa, if one country falls, it inevitably brings down its neighbours. Kenya has escaped the demonstration effects by a whisker since we are already in a bad neighbourhood. Why are we tempting fate?
Are there seriously NO OTHER WAYS of correcting the wrongs that have been done other than the violence currently rocking the country?
I”m scouring the web trying to understand ODM’s logic. someone please help me!
14 comments
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January 16, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Dom
Kibaki will give in one way or the other,he is the root cause of all this,,he is just evil just like those killing innocent people.
January 16, 2008 at 11:46 pm
D
Well, I guess ODM’s logic is really fairly simple: according to all and everyone who could possibly add any insight into the election process, specifically the tallying of the votes, has stated that the process was highly suspect, so much so that MK was named the winner while evidently it was Raila. The problem is twofold: if, in a democracy, an election is rigged, and you do not stand up for your rights, you will forever lose. If, however, you are in a situation where the rigging was done by people with no problem of using violence in protecting their theft, you can either fight to get back what was stolen. Or you give in. Anything, anything, based on rules, like a democracy, becomes the opposite of what it was intended, once only one of the involved breaks those rules. – And, for the record: No, I did not vote for ODM. I voted for the other guy and have to forever carry the shame. But I voted according to the rules. The one I voted for, did not play by them. So here we are. What to do? I would say: peaceful mass action, day in, day out. But you are confronted with a violent force turning everything into a riot. You are also likely to have members amongst you who want to loot. Democracy, indeed, is a very expensive thing. The alternative is dictatorship, even more expensive.
January 17, 2008 at 12:43 am
Dhano
let me help you. i have deeply read the American history visited their civil rights museum and at times i shook my head when i sit in class that should have more black than there are not because they are stopped but rather because they are now free to go but just don’t want to. the opposite is the case in Kenya. Many of us think that we had reach the pinnacle of democracy and that our country was on the track. the truth of the matter is justice had not prevailed and the right constitution was not in place. So for that matter things have to get worse before it gets better because some folks when they open their mouths sound as if they own the country. I don’t care par se’ to see Raila as president but the truth of the matter is i want justice and i want equality and that is what ODM is drumming right now and as it is normal the bus is headed on the road and i will board it…we rather build something a fresh from scratch rather than have an elusive imaginary form of peace and security that can not be guaranteed and is for just a few who are in power.!
January 17, 2008 at 1:02 am
Mwananchi Mkenya
Justice and Equality HOW? Thats what I’m asking. HOW will mass demonstrations achieve justice and equality?
Is the plan to make the country so ungovernable that Kibaki steps down?
Dhano are you serious about rather building something from scratch Rwanda style? Seriously? Rwanda sounds that appealing? We’re willing to tear it all down to start from Somalia style?
Is it even possible? Look at how hard Somalia has had it. They haven’t set up a state yet.
is ‘Justice and Equality’ worth it?
Call me a scaredycat but I’d rather wait it out for five years if those are my options.
But surely, there have to be other options!!?!!
January 17, 2008 at 3:20 am
tom
I think if you read the press release you would see what the plan is. R said “We will soldier on with mass action until we triumph over our stolen vote” what will this triumph look like and when will we know when we have triumphed? Is this like Bush’s war in Iraq? We will know we have succeeded when our leaders tell us we have succeeded?
What you seem to be saying is that you do not believe it!! [that is your own issue not ODMs]
In kenya we have one policeman for every maybe 5 or 600 people.
So what “the people” want always prevails.
It is only a matter of time before Kibaki realizes that to stay in power he will have to talk to the people instead of shooting them.
Leadership means people follow, when people stop following…
January 17, 2008 at 4:18 am
Frank
ODM shot themselves in the foot when they made their “crusade’ a tribal. They’ve lost the moral authority.
How did ODM make their crusade tribal? What did they do to make it tribal? At the end of the day most ethnic groups united to vote Kibaki out. Not to vote Kikuyus out (that happened latter) but to vote Kibaki and PNU out. It is PNU who made the whole thing tribal by conflating PNU to GEMA. By pulling this move they put all GEMA people at risk for their own benefit. Kiuks need to be revolting against PNU for the damage they have done that will take generations to undo if ever.
From my sense, Raila didn’t tell guys to go kill Kiuks. His attempts to tell them not to were half-assed and weak, but he didn’t, as far as I’ve seen, tell them to go kill Kiuks. If anything, the rioting in Kisumu proves the opposite. Those guys burnt their own city down.
Now Rutu is a big problem. I really see him at the center of the ethnic cleansing in the Rift Valley. If not by commission, by omission.
January 17, 2008 at 4:35 am
ninja
you claim to be a political scientist professor and have no idea what is happening in Kenya. Did you say you are an activist? Me thinks you are a tribalist to the core.
see response below
January 17, 2008 at 5:46 am
Mwananchi Mkenya
hmmm. Does a distaste for violence make me tribalist?
I’m a professor of African politics with particular research interests in Ethnic Politics. I feel no further need to defend my credentials.
The questions i’m asking are actually about policy and strategy.
And I’m actually working very hard to like Raila. As I said before, I’m very over Kibaki.
I just need convincing that Raila has an actual agenda, track record, and strategy.
I really hope he does because he is the only political option on the horizon.
January 17, 2008 at 7:15 am
Mwangi
I am with you, I want to know what exactly ODM wants out of this? What Raila wants out of this? And what the protestors want out of this? (I am assuming there may be variations)
A friend of mine once sat down and had a heart to heart with Raila and told me that apparently Raila has big, grand plans for our country to take it forward, and he said he was impressed by just how forward thinking the man was, perhaps this is the true Raila Odinga. see, thats what i’m trying to understand too!!! I badly want to believe that is who the real Raila is but there are not strong enough indications
On the other hand, talk to a typical GEMA and they either fear or hate him, sometimes both, assuming that the moment he gets in power, GEMA will become the Tutsis an will be displaced and hurt in a whole host of ways by a number of the other tribes in Kenya but this time with government backing. Perhaps, they are also right. I dunno.
My personal thoughts on this are that anyone with a heart for the situation should completely ignore the exercise in trying to understand their psychology and motivations and instead craft an alternative positive, forward thinking agenda for the country and use all avenues in their power to push for that.
I heard someone above talking about civil rights, ultimately isn’t that how civil rights came about, when the African Americans decided to be the creators of their destiny rather than the victims of it.
That’s my two cents. Hope it serves. I agree with you that what we need are agenda driven politics. But is anyone out there capable of doing that? I want Raila to be able to do that but in key moments he dissapoints
January 17, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Shiroh
The most right thing is that the VP takes over as president for 90 days. Thats called Kalonzo’s miracle
I would have the same questions of Kalonzo that I do of Raila. What is his track record? Is he truly capable of leading the country in a united way? And i’m personally put off by his jumping into bed with PNU so damn fast! That said, perhaps that is the best path. A new elections in 3 months. Then there are those displaced in Rift Valley, Tigoni and even Kibera. Is three months long enough to set up a system to ensure that everyone votes?
January 17, 2008 at 2:47 pm
tom
This anthropologist ‘aloof’ type attitude is not working Are you Kenyan or not?
If I was aloof I wouldn’t spend hours blogging on the issue.
Yes, I am Kenyan and I want to have a country left at the end of all this which is why i’m participating in debates on the issue.
why must you follow either Kibaki or Raila/ODM?
I’m sorry but i’m not burning with passion for either one of the ‘leaders’. I’m perhaps one of the few Kenyans left who has still not succumbed to the cult of personality; either Kibaki’s or Raila’s.
These politicians will come and go, but the rest of will be left with the country. If say in 2012, a certain Mohammed somebody steals the elections from Wangari Maathai, what would you recommend? Now you’re getting my point! When I hear chants of “NO Raila No Peace” I wonder! Why aren’t they chanting “NO Democracy No Peace”?!!!
Go home, think about what YOU will do about the stolen election (did you vote?) and once you have made up your mind you can come and tell us about it. Hmm, I am home thinking about it and talking to people about it. If you read my other posts you’ll see my strong preference for resolving the problem, and it is a grave problem, in ways that will strengthen the country’s democratic INSTITUTIONS including an independent legislature and judiciary.
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Have you seen this?
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=DtFhwgyeVyI
If you think you can appease this government by lying low like a form A16 you and I both know that reference is heavily loaded with ethnic hatered so I wonder why you would choose to use it in this forum. I have not forgotten Ntimama’s order to Kikuyus in the Moi era [or blaming ODM/Raila for the evils done on kenyans by this illegal regime] then you have another thing coming. After they are done with us, they will come for you “us vs. you” is exactly the mentality that is destroying the country. What makes you think i’m not part of ‘you’?
you must always remember that they killed over 800 “so called Mungiki” youths before the elections I’m sure you’ve by now caught on that i’m in no way supporting Kibaki’s regime. He needs to be out and he needs to pay for his wrongs. But we’ve worked too hard to build a democracy only to rip it down with our own bare hands.
is life sacred anymore
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First they came for the Communists, but I was not a Communist – so I said nothing. Then they came for the Social Democrats, but I was not a Social Democrat – so I did nothing. Then they came for the trade unionists, but I was not a trade unionist. And then they came for the Jews, but I was not a Jew – so I did little. Then when they came for me, there was no one left who could stand up for me.”
January 17, 2008 at 6:53 pm
tom
Having read you comments above. All i can say is that you are being to rational and logical which in itself is choosing one side. In the academia its called analysis paralysis.
Being “rational/dependable/selfish” is what PNU is counting on.
The masses, and i dont mean ODM, have always counted on being irrational/lawless/ungovernable as their ultimate trump card against safe/peaceful/calm/handsome/cowardly middle classes
After we remove the political/tribal fog, we will find a class warfare hiding underneath and kenya is still a very very very poor country with very very very rich people
January 17, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Mwananchi Mkenya
Aslo, by your logic if I am irrational/lawless/ungovernable then I am choosing the your side.
Your rationale is dangerous as it leaves no space for thought or dissension.
Its the either/or logic that I am so critical of
January 18, 2008 at 1:16 am
Francis
This is a war that only the rich and the MPs win… money.
In this chaos; everybody loses. The country loses lives of it’s people; infrastructure, developmental projects; farms and the produce thereof; children — the children’s future..
Kibaki or Raila rules, you and I do not gain much.. just our small salaries.
The rest is rhetoric.
It will take years to repair the infrastructure; Prices will be thru the roof, most of the gains of the last 5 years are flushed down the drain; Education is messed up for may children. So many teachers are displaced or afraid of living in their posts after witnessing and perhaps bearing te brunt of the violence. Civil servants living in outflung areas will want to leave… what will happen to our families and yu and me who live upcountry?
The MPs…. Even now none of them are calling on a ceasefire. But they are happy to be sworn in and receive thier greatly inflated and UNDESERVED salaries. Will they be people of goodwill and reduce their massive salries in the aftermath of this chaos OR will they cite inflation and increase their bloated salaries??