According to Funua, Maina Kiai has suggested that there are only two ways out of the current impasse:

  1. Zimbabwe style, where the state dominates, and we live in fear under a dictator. (Kibaki seems like a really dangerous dictator for the ways that he is an inefficient one)
  2. Ivory coast style, where the country is broken up, and we have internecine wars. (if the talks fail the revenge will killings continue. In which case I hope the U.S. Senate bill passes and there are asset and visa freezes on PNU and ODM leadership’s assets abroad so they have to die in Kenya with the rest of us)

I think there are many other options before that.

  1. Kibaki and Raila actually sort themselves out, agree, form a coalition government for however long, change the constitution, have elections and set about healing the country with the best that both parties have to offer. Strong economic fundamentals from the PNU side and just equitable redistribution of resources from ODM side. (the ideal plan for Kenya on all fronts and from the looks of it, perhaps God will save us all)
  2. Kikuyus within the PNU revolt from Kibaki’s rule and subvert him by joining up with ODM (good for democracy and hopefully good for ending the ethnic violence)
  3. ODM breaks up with the constituent ethnic groups opting to go it alone leaving Kibaki to rule albeit without the numbers in Parliament. (crap option for democracy but perhaps good for ending the violence?)
  4. Kibaki croaks, Kalonzo is president for 90 days, new elections where ODM wins, and hopes that Kalonzo can keep a lid on Mungiki for long enough to have a new election.
  5. If Raila croaks we are all screwed. for a long long time.